First of all, there is no question President Bashir Al Assad of Syria is a bad actor in the Middle East just as there is no question about President Putin invading and annexing his neighbors and general meddling in the internal affairs of other countries. Assad’s troops have been indiscriminately killing his own countrymen since the civil war started. The use of heavy artillery, barrel bombs, and other heavy weapons in populated civilian areas have resulted in significant civilian casualties and resulted in up to a million Syrian refugees leaving the country. No one in their right minds would claim Assad doesn’t have blood on his hands.
On April 7, 2018, reports of a gas attack in the rebel enclave of Douma, a final holdout of the rebels in greater Damascus. A video surfaced of apparently dead victims who were foaming at their mouths, a sure sign of nerve agent poisoning. In response, world leaders have promised swift action. Russia Foreign Minister Lavrov responds that Russia will shoot down any incoming US missiles. On April 10th, President Trump escalates on Twitter promising to send many excellent smart missiles on their way to Syria. France’s President Macron also promised attacks if it is proven Syria was responsible.
Chemical weapons have been an absolute no-no in warfare since World War One. Even Hitler, who had no qualms about killing civilians with poison gas in death camps did not use them in open warfare throughout World War Two. They were not used again until Saddam Huessein and his cousin known as “Chemical Ali” used them on the Kurds in one attack resulting in over 5,000 dead. In Syria, claims of chemical attacks resulted in an agreement by a coalition of western countries and Assad whereby he hands over 1,000 tons of chemical weapons saying that he had no reason to use them. An independent organization, The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons certified that Assad forces have handed over all known stockpiles of chemical weapons. John Kerry of the Obama Administration writes however, that unregistered weapons may still be at large in his exit memo.
Since the chemical attacks have occurred only in rebel held territory, there has been no independent confirmation as to who was the responsible party. In one case, the UN confirmed chemical weapons were used but was unable to confirm who used them. If this was a court case, the evidence would have be thrown out because there was no documented chain of custody for the samples which were used to confirm a chemical attack. Theoretically, there may not have been an attack and someone could just slip chemicals into the evidence container anywhere along the line. The only witnesses to any of the attacks where anti-Assad rebels. All pictures and videos on the Syrian conflict either comes from the Syrian Army or the rebels. There is no independent organization of any kind on the ground in the rebel-held territories.
The part that doesn’t make sense is why would Assad use chemical weapons which has such limited tactical uses. Assad’s forces have the upper hand. Rebels have been routed in other suburbs of Damascus and the last remaining position in Douma is surrounded with the Syria Army and Russian support fully surrounding the enclave and winning the war. Assad knows that using chemical weapons may likely result in severe reprisals from the rest of the world. So why would he use it? Why would the Russians who are basically propping him up even allow this to happen? Trump also recently announced that he was going to disengage from Syria and now the US is being drawn back in. How does that make sense for Assad to do what he is accused of doing. If he did do it, it smacks of a stupidity unfathomable. Assad was originally a medical doctor in ophthalmology and had no intention of being the tyrant of Syria until his older brother died in a car accident. He is many things, but not an idiot.
For us home-gamers, we do not have access to classified intelligence from the CIA or other sources. We do not know how strong the evidence is against Assad. What we do know is the use of chemical weapons does not make sense given Assad is about to win the war and such weapons if used, may change the outcome of the civil war to the rebels’ side. Since President Trump has shown that he will act on promises, we can now expect a salvo of US cruise missiles headed to Syria in the next 48 hours.
